1. Why this project exists
Irish Population Explorer is a scenario builder for experimenting with long-run population dynamics. Every population forecast is uncertain, so we expose fertility and migration sliders that let you plug in your own assumptions and immediately see the impact. Treat every output as a guide for conversation rather than a definitive prediction.
The current release bundles the latest CSO estimates with a lightweight projection engine. Use the controls to test alternative futures.
2. Core datasets
- CSO Population Estimates by Age (PEA) 1991–2024 — base stock for total population and age structure.
- CSO Ethnicity & Nationality Census tables — ethnicity-specific age profiles used for subgroup projections.
- CSO Births and Fertility Vital Statistics — Total Fertility Rate reference paths and age-specific fertility weights.
- Department of Social Protection PPSN allocations (banded) — recent net migration pulse and age distribution checks.
3. Modelling assumptions
- Total Fertility Rate. We compute a weighted TFR each year using the female 15–49 population shares:
TFR = sIrish×TFRIrish + sEuro×TFREuro + sNon-Euro×TFRNon-Euro. Shares update as the cohort mix changes. - Migration. Annual inflows by ethnicity are linearly interpolated between the start and end sliders. Age-specific arrival profiles follow CSO PPSN issuance patterns.
- Births & deaths. Age-specific fertility rates come from CSO vital stats; survivorship follows CSO cohort life tables with minor smoothing.
- Ethnicity mix. Starting ethnicity shares follow the most recent Census; future cohorts inherit the mix implied by net migration and births.
- Historical ethnicity reconstruction. Earlier years (e.g., Census 1991) estimate ethnicity splits using nationality and place-of-birth tables where direct ethnicity data is unavailable.
- Interpolation. For any slider change we rebuild the projection schedule linearly between the base year and the selected forecast horizon.
4. Scenario benchmarks
The table summarises external migration and fertility scenarios that inform the default slider presets.
| Source Name | Scenario Name | Forecast start | Forecast end | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSO Vital Statistics Yearly Summary 2024 | Actual 2024 data | 2024 | 2024 | TFR | 1.50 (annual TFR). (CSO) |
| CSO PxStat PEA03/PEA15 (Population & Migration Estimates) | Actual 2024 data | 2024 | 2024 | Net migration (year to April) | +79,300. (CSO) |
| CSO PxStat PEA03/PEA15 (Population & Migration Estimates) | Actual 2023 data | 2023 | 2023 | Net migration (year to April) | +77,600. (CSO) |
| CSO PxStat PEA03/PEA15 (Population & Migration Estimates) | Actual 2022 data | 2022 | 2022 | Net migration (year to April) | +51,700. (CSO) |
| Department of Finance – Future Forty | Central scenario (migration) | 2024 | 2065 | Net migration (avg p.a.) | 35,000–40,000 (ranges over horizon). |
| Department of Finance – Future Forty | High scenario (migration) | 2024 | 2065 | Net migration (avg p.a.) | 53,000–58,000. |
| Department of Finance – Future Forty | Low scenario (migration) | 2024 | 2065 | Net migration (avg p.a.) | ≈18,500. |
| Department of Finance – Future Forty | Central fertility scenario | 2024 | 2065 | TFR (long-run level) | 1.30 (falls to 1.3 by ~2038, then stable). |
| Department of Finance – Future Forty | High fertility scenario | 2024 | 2065 | TFR (long-run level) | 1.53 (stable). |
| Department of Finance – Future Forty | Low fertility scenario | 2024 | 2065 | TFR (long-run level) | 1.20 (stable). |
| CSO – Population & Labour Force Projections 2023–2057 | M1 – High net migration | 2022 | 2057 | Net migration (path) | Starts in 70k+ and tapers to 45,000 p.a. by 2028, then flat. (CSO) |
| CSO – Population & Labour Force Projections 2023–2057 | M2 – Moderate net migration | 2022 | 2057 | Net migration (path) | Starts in 70k+ and tapers to 30,000 p.a. by 2032, then flat. (CSO) |
| CSO – Population & Labour Force Projections 2023–2057 | M3 – Low net migration | 2022 | 2057 | Net migration (path) | Starts in 70k+ and tapers to 10,000 p.a. by 2032, then flat. (CSO) |
| CSO – Population & Labour Force Projections 2023–2057 | Fertility assumptions (national) | 2022 | 2057 | TFR (path) | 1.55 in 2022 → ~1.30 by 2037, then constant. (CSO) |
| ESRI – Research Series 190 | Baseline population scenario | 2022 | 2040 | Net migration (rule) | +35k p.a. to 2030 (higher in the next two years), +20k p.a. thereafter. (ESRI) |
| ESRI – Research Series 190 | High international migration | 2022 | 2040 | Net migration (rule) | Baseline +10k p.a. each year. (ESRI) |
| ESRI – Research Series 190 | Low international migration | 2022 | 2040 | Net migration (rule) | Baseline −10k p.a. each year. (ESRI) |
| ESRI – Research Series 190 | Fertility assumption | 2022 | 2040 | TFR (rule) | Broadly constant at ≈1.55; anchored to CSO 2022 TFR. (ESRI) |
| Eurostat – EUROPOP2023 (proj_23n) | Baseline | 2022 | 2100 | TFR (series) | Annual TFR series 2022–2100 (baseline projection). (European Commission) |
| Eurostat – EUROPOP2023 (proj_23n) | Baseline | 2022 | 2100 | Net migration (series) | Annual net migration series 2022–2100 (baseline projection). (European Commission) |
| Eurostat – EUROPOP2023 (proj_23n) | Lower fertility | 2022 | 2100 | TFR (rule) | 20% below baseline TFR in each year. (European Commission) |
| Eurostat – EUROPOP2023 (proj_23n) | Zero net migration | 2022 | 2100 | Net migration (rule) | Zero net migration assumption (series). (European Commission) |
| Eurostat – EUROPOP2023 (proj_23n) | Higher non-EU immigration | 2022 | 2100 | Net migration (rule) | +33% non-EU immigration vs baseline (series). (European Commission) |
| Eurostat – EUROPOP2023 (proj_23n) | Lower non-EU immigration | 2022 | 2100 | Net migration (rule) | −33% non-EU immigration vs baseline (series). (European Commission) |
| Eurostat – EUROPOP2023 (proj_23n) | Lower mortality | 2022 | 2100 | Context | Life expectancy +2 years vs baseline in 2100 (complements fertility/migration assumptions). (European Commission) |